Black Friday Came Early and Killed November

Early consumer spending, persistent shutdown anxiety, and lackluster promotions converged to erase the holiday surge retailers and suppliers were counting on.

Retailers, suppliers, and distributors entered the 2025 holiday season anticipating a meaningful lift in November. Instead, the industry experienced a slow, strained performance that fell well below expectation. Chain Store Guide’s Consumer Spending Report shows the “November Spike” index at 121 for 2025, the lowest in four years compared with 127 in 2023 and 130 in 2022. Only 50 percent of adults reported having money left after paying bills in October, down from 55 percent in September, and 40 percent reported income shortfalls or added expenses.

The extreme pull-forward of holiday spending was a major factor. Retailers launched holiday pricing in mid-October, and consumers responded by shopping early. Spending didn’t vanish; it shifted. The traditional November burst disappeared because much of the holiday budget had already been spent.

Economic concerns made the situation worse. A government shutdown that lasted more than a month created financial uncertainty that made consumers cautious. Households, already under budget pressure, slowed discretionary purchases further as the shutdown extended through late October and early November.

Many promotions also failed to feel compelling. After years of inflation, shoppers have become intensely value sensitive. Many “holiday deals” lacked meaningful price reductions. In categories like electronics, home goods, and apparel, traffic was there, but conversions did not match historic patterns.

This soft November carries significant implications for B2B operators. When demand is pulled into October, forecasting models lose accuracy. Inventory risk rises as sell-through patterns become unpredictable. With November no longer providing a reliable surge, December becomes more uncertain and Q4 planning grows increasingly volatile.

This is where Chain Store Guide becomes especially valuable. When consumer behavior shifts and retail patterns become harder to predict, businesses need direct access to corporate decision makers, buyers, operators, and executives who influence purchasing, merchandising, strategy, and technology adoption. CSG’s industry databases allow suppliers, manufacturers, service firms, and solution providers to reach the exact leaders who can act. With verified corporate hierarchies, location-level intelligence, and detailed contacts across retail, restaurant, grocery, convenience, and distribution channels, B2B organizations can target the companies that are still investing, still expanding, and still evaluating new partnerships.

November weakened because spending was pulled too early, households were under financial pressure, political uncertainty increased anxiety, and promotions lacked power. For B2B companies, the message is straightforward. The holiday season is no longer a single moment but a long, shifting arc that requires better data and better alignment with industry leadership. Companies that adapt quickly and leverage direct relationships with decision makers will be far better prepared to navigate the volatility ahead.

Sources

Chain Store Guide Consumer Spending Report, 2025

McKinsey ConsumerWise Survey, September 2025

Discover Network Holiday Shopping Survey, September 2025

Bazaarvoice Holiday Consumer Shopping Report, July 2025

Bipartisan Policy Center, Government Shutdown Analysis, November 2025

U.S. Census Bureau, Retail Sales Data

National Retail Federation, Holiday Spending Reports